Middleby Corp. (MIDD) is a mid-cap growth stock with a terrific record of growing earnings, a strong balance sheet with no debt, and a current valuation that is historically below average. Therefore, we believe that it represents a very attractive opportunity for investors seeking strong growth from a financially-strong business, a great opportunity to conduct further research. In addition to having a great track record, leading analysts expect this company to continue growing at a rate that is consistent with what it has achieved over the last nine years (8 years of history plus the year we are in).
Growth stocks are defined as companies with high rates of change of earnings growth of 15% to 20% or better. Growth stocks offer the potential for share prices to rise in lockstep with their profit growth in the long run. Therefore, the PEG ratio formula (price equals growth rate) tends to be the most appropriate formula used to value growth stocks. However, due to the exponential nature of compounding large numbers, PEG ratio forecasts are capped at 40%.
Because of the higher valuation typically awarded to fast growth, growth stocks offer the potential for greater capital appreciation. On the other hand, they also offer higher risk. First of all, they tend to command much higher than average PE ratios, and second, achieving very high levels of growth is very difficult to sustain. Consequently, forecasting future earnings growth is more important with high growth stocks than any other class of stock. Also, the average growth stock typically plows all of its profits back into the company to fund its future growth, instead of paying dividends.
Middleby Corp: Large-cap Growth at an Attractive Price
About Middleby Corp
The Middleby Corporation is a global leader in the foodservice equipment industry. The company develops, manufactures, markets and services a broad line of equipment used for commercial food cooking, preparation and processing. The company's leading equipment brands serving the commercial foodservice industry include Anets®, Blodgett®, Blodgett Combi®, Beech®, Bloomfield®, Britannia®, Carter-Hoffmann®, CookTek®, CTX®, Doyon®, FriFri®, Giga®, Holman®, Houno®, IMC®, Jade®, Lang®, Lincat®, MagiKitch'n®, Middleby Marshall®, Nu-Vu®, PerfectFry®, Pitco Frialator®, Southbend®, Star®, Toastmaster® TurboChef® and Wells®. The company's leading equipment brands serving the food processing industry include Alkar®, Armor Inox®, Auto-Bake®, Cozzini®, Danfotech®, Drake®, Maurer-Atmos®, MP Equipment®, RapidPak® and Turkington®. The Middleby Corporation has been recognized by Forbes Magazine as one of the Best Small Companies every year since 2005, most recently in October 2011.
Earnings Determine Market Price: The following earnings and price correlated F.A.S.T. Graphs clearly illustrates the importance of earnings. The Earnings Growth Rate Line or True Worth Line (orange line with white triangles) is correlated with the historical stock price line. On graph after graph the lines will move in tandem. If the stock price strays away from the earnings line (over or under), inevitably it will come back to earnings. Here is a link to a live and fully functioning graph on Middleby Corp. We suggest running graphs over numerous time frames as part of a more comprehensive fundamental analysis.
Click on any chart below to enlarge:
Middleby Corp: Historical Earnings, Price, Dividends and Normal PE Since 2004
Performance Table Middleby Corp
The Two Keys to Long-Term Performance
Years of research and experience have taught us that there are two critically important keys to achieving above-average, long-term shareholder returns at reasonably controlled levels of risk. The first key is earnings growth, or what we like to call the rate of change of earnings growth. The faster a company can grow its business (i.e. earnings), the larger the income stream it can produce with which to reward shareholders. This is because of the power of compounding, which Albert Einstein was alleged to have called "the most powerful force on earth." Ultimately, both capital appreciation and dividend income will be a function of a company's ability to grow its profits.
The second key is valuation. When a company can be purchased at its intrinsic value based on earnings and cash flow generation, the shareholders' rate of return or long-term capital appreciation will inevitably correlate to and/or equal its earnings growth rate. Overvaluation will lower that rate of return and conversely, undervaluation will increase it. Consequently, paying strict attention to the valuation you pay to buy a stock is a critical component of both greater return and taking lower risk to achieve it. Because, ironically, when you overpay for even the best business, you simultaneously lower your return potential while increasing your risk of achieving the lower return.
The associated performance results with the earnings and price correlated graph, validates the above discussion regarding the two keys to long-term performance. Notice the impact that valuation (black line above or below orange earnings justified valuation line) had on the following performance results.
The following graph plots the historically normal PE ratio (the dark blue line) correlated with 10-year Treasury note interest. Notice that the current price earnings ratio on this quality company is as normal as it has been since 2004.
A further indication of valuation can be seen by examining a company's current price to sales ratio relative to its historical price to sales ratio. The current price to sales ratio for Middleby Corp is 2.20, which is historically normal.
Looking to the Future
Extensive research has provided a preponderance of conclusive evidence that future long-term returns are a function of two critical determinants:
The rate of change (growth rate) of the company's earnings
The price or valuation you pay to buy those earnings
Forecasting future earnings growth, bought at sound valuations, is the key to safe, sound, and profitable performance.
Therefore, it logically follows that measuring performance without simultaneously measuring valuation is a job half done. Middleby Corp is clearly an industry leading superior business, which based on the consensus estimates from leading analysts, appears to be capable of growing earnings at an above-average rate for the foreseeable future. At its current price, which is attractively aligned with its True Worth valuation, Middleby Corp represents an opportunity for growth at a reasonable price. The important factor is that Middleby Corp, with its strong balance sheet and potential for future earnings growth, has real assets and cash flow underpinning its stock price. This solid economic foundation offers shareholders the potential for both a strong margin of safety and an opportunity for outsized future returns.
The Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator Tool is a simple yet powerful resource that empowers the user to calculate and run various investing scenarios that generate precise rate of return potentialities. Thinking the investment through to its logical conclusion is an important component towards making sound and prudent common sense investing decisions.
The consensus of 5 leading analysts reporting to Capital IQ forecast Middleby Corp's long-term earnings growth at 20%. Middleby Corp has no long-term debt at 0% of capital. Middleby Corp is currently trading at a P/E of 18.6, which is inside the value corridor (defined by the five orange lines) of a maximum P/E of 24. If the earnings materialize as forecast, Middleby Corp's True Worth valuation would be $269.57 at the end of 2017, which would be a 18.5% annual rate of return from the current price.
Earnings Yield Estimates
Discounted Future Cash Flows: All companies derive their value from the future cash flows (earnings) they are capable of generating for their stake holders over time. Therefore, because Earnings Determine Market Price in the long run, we expect the future earnings of a company to justify the price we pay.
Since all investments potentially compete with all other investments, it is useful to compare investing in any perspective company to that of a comparable investment in low risk Treasury bonds. Comparing an investment in Middleby Corp to an equal investment in 10 year Treasury bonds, illustrates that Middleby Corp's expected earnings would be 7.1 times that of the 10 Year T-Bond Interest. (See EYE chart below). This is the essence of the importance of proper valuation as a critical investing component.
Summary & Conclusions
This report presented essential "fundamentals at a glance" illustrating the past and present valuation based on earnings achievements as reported. Future forecasts for earnings growth are based on the consensus of leading analysts. Although with just a quick glance you can know a lot about the company, it's imperative that the reader conducts their own due diligence in order to validate whether the consensus estimates seem reasonable or not.
We believe that Middleby possesses the most important characteristics that a growth-oriented investor should look for. It offers past and future above-average growth, low debt and the opportunity to continue growing for several more years. Current valuation is attractive, although not compelling since Middleby has a PEG ratio of just under one. Therefore, we believe the essential "fundamentals at a glance" on this company makes it an excellent candidate that is worthy of further consideration and the accompanying effort of additional due diligence.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
Disclaimer: The opinions in this document are for informational and educational purposes only and should not be construed as a recommendation to buy or sell the stocks mentioned or to solicit transactions or clients. Past performance of the companies discussed may not continue and the companies may not achieve the earnings growth as predicted. The information in this document is believed to be accurate, but under no circumstances should a person act upon the information contained within. We do not recommend that anyone act upon any investment information without first consulting an investment advisor as to the suitability of such investments for his specific situation.
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