Showing posts with label Earnings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Earnings. Show all posts

Sunday, May 13, 2012

UPDATED: Look for Buying Opportunity in Lime Energy Following Earnings Miss, Market Inattention - Forbes

Lime Energy (NASD:LIME) reported first quarter earnings after market close on Thursday with a loss of 19 cents per share,  5 cents below analyst expectations.

Revenue in the first quarter was 3.5% lower than a year ago, with the drop attributable to declining revenues in Lime’s Commercial and Industrial (C&I) business following last year’s decision to refocus this business on opportunities where Lime has a competitive advantage.

Utility Programs

Those opportunities are falling into place nicely.  Central to Lime’s strategy is the company’s utility business, where they bid for long term contracts to implement utility Demand Side Management (DSM) programs.

As I wrote last week, this strategy is being validated by contract wins.  A year ago, Lime had two utility contracts, today they have seven.  In the first quarter alone, they added four new contracts accounting for $65 million in potential revenue.

Lime’s Strategy

Utility direct install programs are the basis for Lime’s edge in the very competitive energy efficiency business.  Utility contracts tend to be long term, and less competitive because of the bureaucratic nature of utilities and their regulators.  Lime’s track record of successful implementation and experience in dealing with utility clients gives them an advantage.  The long term nature of the contracts means that Lime will also have a competitive advantage in bidding for future contracts from the same utility because they will have an infrastructure in place from having serviced the previous contract.

Utility programs have an added benefit.  They give Lime access to smaller C&I customers which competitors find difficult to reach.  In the process of implementing a utility program, Lime is paid by the utility to contact the customer and install a defined menu of energy efficiency improvements.  Once the relationship is established, Lime can go on to offer the customer energy upgrades that fall outside the utility program, but which are profitable to both Lime and the customer.

Investment Community Opinion

Lime’s utility-centric strategy has largely escaped the  notice of the investment community.  I polled my panel of eleven green money managers and analysts about Lime last week.  None said they were paying attention to this micro-cap company, and those who responded were negative.

Most of the comments focused on the highly competitive nature of the industry, and showed a lack of awareness of Lime’s current strategy.  No one on my panel wanted to be quoted by name, but one called it a lousy business “with no barriers to entry and low margins.  No technology; it’s just a body shop without any recurring revenues.”

As you can see, this shows a lack of awareness of Lime’s utility business, which produces both recurring revenues and a barrier to entry.  To me, that makes Lime an excellent candidate: Lime has adopted a new, more viable strategy in the last year which which should start having a noticeable impact on both the top and bottom lines next quarter, but most investors are still thinking about the company as if nothing had changed in the last two years.


View the original article here

Saturday, April 7, 2012

Groupon’s Earnings Restatement: Broken Business or Buying Opportunity? - Yahoo Finance

There's an old saying that goes, "Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me." Today, it applies directly to Groupon (GRPN) as shares of the newly listed leader in the budding daily-deals online coupon business are down 10%, scorching investors for the second time in as many quarters after announcing a revision to its previously reported results.

As the company explains in its press release (which dubiously came out after the market closed on Friday) the latest hit is the result of a "shift in its business mix" to high-end, higher-priced products. Generally speaking, this is a good development and part of the reason why Groupon left its existing guidance intact for the first quarter. The downside, however, is that bigger deals, require bigger refunds and that's the rub, or at least the source of what could be many rubs.

''That's a big problem,'' my colleague Aaron Task says in the attached video, adding that because the company has only been public for five months, its credibility is subject to even closer scrutiny. "You gotta get that right, that's when you should have everything locked down,'' he says, while predicting that the stock will be headed even lower.

As it stands now, the stock has been penalized more than $1 billion for what is essentially a $100 million revenue restatement from last year, a 10% beating that is arguably too harsh for the 4-cent per share crime.

Even so, the way forward for Groupon has now been made even more difficult, as no less than four firms have downgraded the stock and/or estimates this morning while at least five law firms have announced (e.g. advertised) their intentions to sue on behalf aggrieved shareholders. There's also the issue of a big insider lock-up period expiring at the six-month mark, which could see some heavy selling and further weigh on shares.

"They're finding their way as a public company," Task says, raising the question whether this $10 billion business might have ''rushed themselves to market'' before they were really ready to play in the big leagues.


View the original article here

Monday, April 2, 2012

Groupon’s Earnings Restatement: Broken Business or Buying Opportunity? - Yahoo Finance

There's an old saying that goes, "Burn me once, shame on you. Burn me twice, shame on me." Today, it applies directly to Groupon (GRPN) as shares of the newly listed leader in the budding daily-deals online coupon business are down 10%, scorching investors for the second time in as many quarters after announcing a revision to its previously reported results.

As the company explains in its press release (which dubiously came out after the market closed on Friday) the latest hit is the result of a "shift in its business mix" to high-end, higher-priced products. Generally speaking, this is a good development and part of the reason why Groupon left its existing guidance intact for the first quarter. The downside, however, is that bigger deals, require bigger refunds and that's the rub, or at least the source of what could be many rubs.

''That's a big problem,'' my colleague Aaron Task says in the attached video, adding that because the company has only been public for five months, its credibility is subject to even closer scrutiny. "You gotta get that right, that's when you should have everything locked down,'' he says, while predicting that the stock will be headed even lower.

As it stands now, the stock has been penalized more than $1 billion for what is essentially a $100 million revenue restatement from last year, a 10% beating that is arguably too harsh for the 4-cent per share crime.

Even so, the way forward for Groupon has now been made even more difficult, as no less than four firms have downgraded the stock and/or estimates this morning while at least five law firms have announced (e.g. advertised) their intentions to sue on behalf aggrieved shareholders. There's also the issue of a big insider lock-up period expiring at the six-month mark, which could see some heavy selling and further weigh on shares.

"They're finding their way as a public company," Task says, raising the question whether this $10 billion business might have ''rushed themselves to market'' before they were really ready to play in the big leagues.


View the original article here