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Trita Parsi and Reza Marashi GET UPDATES FROM Trita Parsi Like 93 GET UPDATES FROM Reza Marashi Like 33 Europe's Unique Opportunity to ActPosted: 06/12/2012 11:10 am React
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The nuclear talks in Baghdad between Iran and the Permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany (P5+1) failed to produce a breakthrough. The bad news is that time is running out. By July 1, the West will escalate with an embargo on oil and sanctions on Iran's Central Bank. Iran will respond in kind and the situation may get out of control. The good news is that the ball is in Europe's court and -- unlike America -- the EU has the ability to make diplomacy succeed in the short term.
After more than a decade of coercive policies, the track record is clear: Iran is paying an increasingly hefty price for its nuclear program. Crippling, indiscriminate sanctions are derailing the Iranian economy and civil society. Even if sanctions are lifted, it may take years before Iran recuperates from the damage it has absorbed.
At the same time, none of this pain has impacted Iran's nuclear calculus in a meaningful way. In fact, Iran's program has progressed and reached several milestones during this period. In 2002, it had less than a few dozen centrifuges, no stockpile of enriched uranium and limited knowledge about the process. Today, it has around 10,000 centrifuges, a stockpile of several thousand kg of enriched uranium, and knowledge of the nuclear fuel cycle that simply cannot be untaught. Any hope to eliminate Iran's enrichment program was lost years ago.
In short, the coercive approach is not the success it is touted to be.
Yet, Iran does not have a nuclear weapon and it is still years from being able to build one. If the coercive approach remains in place, however, the track record indicates Iran will reach a point in which the intensified confrontation with the West will remove any hesitation in Tehran to pursue nuclear deterrence.
If the approach agreed upon in Istanbul in April 2012 is pursued, however, a solution is within reach. There, the two sides agreed to negotiate based on a reciprocal, step-by-step approach within the framework of the Non-Proliferating Treaty. In this concessions-for-concessions approach, both sides would give rather than take, help rather than harm.
But when the rubber hit the road in Baghdad, it turned out that giving wasn't as easy as it sounded. Particularly if you are the President of the United States and you face a hostile U.S. Congress, an obstinate Israeli Prime Minister and an uncertain election in six months.
The U.S. and its allies rightfully demanded that Iran cease enrichment of uranium to 20 percent, ship out its stockpile of 20 percent enriched uranium and freeze activities at the Fordo plant. These would be very valuable concessions from the Western perspective.
In return, however, no concessions were offered that were considered valuable by Tehran. Reciprocity faltered, primarily because of the president's limited political maneuverability in an election year. All Obama needs is a limited give-and-take to keep the diplomatic process alive till after the U.S. elections, at which point more sincere negotiations can begin.
This is where Europe comes in. It has a unique opportunity to act. Unlike America, the European political landscape is void of the intractable political interests that have a stake in keeping the conflict alive.
By delaying -- not lifting -- its impending embargo on Iranian oil for six months, Europe will give decisive breathing space to an otherwise constricted negotiation process. The Iranians should, in turn, freeze the enrichment of 20 percent uranium for that same period.
Delaying the sanctions will not ease pressure on Iran. According to renowned Iranian economist Bijan Khajehpour, 85 percent of the embargo is already in effect. Delaying its formal imposition will not cause buyers to return to the Iranian market. All it will do is to provide the West with an ability to use the oil embargo as the bargaining tool it was supposed to be -- and exchange it for tangible, verifiable Iranian nuclear concessions.
If the embargo is formally imposed, however, it will become more difficult and costly to lift it and it will serve as naked escalation that will beget Iranian escalation rather than concessions. The risk of war will increase and the threat of an Israeli strike may materialize.
Between sanctions and peace, the choice for Europe should be obvious. Europe must take the step towards peace that American cannot.
Trita Parsi is the author of A Single Roll of the Dice -- Obama's Diplomacy with Iran. Reza Marashi is a former U.S. State Department Iran Desk offcier. Both are with the National Iranian American Council.
A Single Roll of the Dice: Obama's Diplomacy with Iranby Trita Parsi
Follow Trita Parsi on Twitter:www.twitter.com/tparsi
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View AllFavorites Recency | Popularity JumboBurrito42 Fans 29 minutes ago ( 2:40 PM)The Iranians have not negotiated in good faith because they have not had anything to gain by it. Until sanctions are imposed, the west will hold no cards in their hands. Delaying sanctions will just show the Iranians that they can drive a wedge between Europe and the US.JumboBurrito: The Iranians have not negotiated in good faith because theyhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JumboBurrito/post_3496_b_1589756_160788940.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… This user has chosen to opt out of the Badges program gutenmorgena.k.a. poopdeck322 Fans 60 minutes ago ( 2:09 PM)The sanctions on Iran have absolutely nothing to do with its uranium enrichment to 20% U235 which that nation is allowed to do under international agreements and controls but is exclusively aimed at regime change. The fact that the authors of this paper are hung up on uranium enrichment either means that they are ignorant or else that they deliberately falsify history as it is happening. Uranium enrichment is nothing but a fig leaf for political scoundrels or sand strewn into the eyes of an ignorant public.There is not the slightest indication that a "new" government of Iran will not try to enrich uranium hence must be replaced by yet another one.
Every country that has developed nukes has eventually discovered that these can only be used as a deterrent and not as a real offensive weapon because retaliation with nukes will be devastating. The government of Iran seems to fully understands this truth.gutenmorgen: The sanctions on Iran have absolutely nothing to do withhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/gutenmorgen/post_3496_b_1589756_160781352.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it
HUFFPOST BLOGGERSoraya Sepahpour-Ulrich42 Fans 40 minutes ago ( 2:29 PM)Excellent response.Soraya_Sepahpour-Ulrich: Excellent response.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Soraya_Sepahpour-Ulrich/post_3496_b_1589756_160786284.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it parsiOnce you labe me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaard366 Fans 22 minutes ago ( 2:47 PM)How's Ahmadinejad, your buddy??? Do you still love him??LOLhttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYB43MmtNf4parsi: How's Ahmadinejad, your buddy??? Do you still love him??LOL http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LYB43MmtNf4http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/parsi/post_3496_b_1589756_160790563.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation.
Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… bigwanker0 Fans 2 hours ago (12:58 PM)Better yet, why don't we along with a coalition of european countries & Israel just bomb these bastards back to the 2nd century. We're going to do it anyway in the future, might as well get it on now instead of another protracted 10 yr fiasco like Iraq.bigwanker: Better yet, why don't we along with a coalition ofhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/bigwanker/post_3496_b_1589756_160763683.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… Helioscopeprime19 Fans 2 hours ago (12:53 PM)Iran will build nuclear weapons. There is no diplomacy that will ever stop this...ever. Iran believes it faces an existential threat from not having nuclear weapons (just like Israel pre-nuclear). No country can ever be induced to stop doing what it believes necessary to ensure its very survival.Helioscopeprime: Iran will build nuclear weapons. There is no diplomacy thathttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Helioscopeprime/post_3496_b_1589756_160762609.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it JumboBurrito42 Fans 27 minutes ago ( 2:42 PM)You are probably eight. But the west should not allow the Iranians to get away with this abuse of the non-proliferation treaty pain free.JumboBurrito: You are probably eight. But the west should not allowhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/JumboBurrito/post_3496_b_1589756_160789333.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… HUFFPOST SUPER USERFreenation433 Fans 2 hours ago (12:45 PM)Europe is not plagues by menace called AIPAC which is plaguing US congress and virtually blackmailing the entire admin into policy managed by right wingers in israel and US....Freenation: Europe is not plagues by menace called AIPAC which ishttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Freenation/post_3496_b_1589756_160760403.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… TeeSC447 Fans 3 hours ago (12:20 PM)Oh Trita Trita Trita...just once I would like to hear you denounce the IRI. Or else just admit who you really are.TeeSC: Oh Trita Trita Trita...
just once I would like to hearhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/TeeSC/post_3496_b_1589756_160754544.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it
Nader Nazemi2 Fans 2 hours ago (12:44 PM)You sound mad. Why should he denounce a peaceful nuclear energy ?
Last I checked the US and Israel had thousands of nuclear weapons and the US is the only country in the history of mankind to use those WMDs on human populations in Japan committing the Hiroshima and Nagasaki Twin Holocausts.Nader_Nazemi: You sound mad. Why should he denounce a peaceful nuclearhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Nader_Nazemi/post_3496_b_1589756_160760321.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it
TeeSC447 Fans 2 hours ago ( 1:32 PM)Mad? No, not really. I'm not talking about peaceful nuclear energy. I'm talking about Trita's refusal to denounce the regime in general. Trita's priority is NOT the Iranian people.TeeSC: Mad? No, not really.
I'm not talking about peaceful nuclear energy.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/TeeSC/post_3496_b_1589756_160772246.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. There are More Comments on this Thread. Click Here To See them All
Loading comments… parsiOnce you labe me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaard366 Fans 26 minutes ago ( 2:43 PM)Nader khan: You sound hysterical??Lolparsi: Nader khan: You sound hysterical??Lolhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/parsi/post_3496_b_1589756_160789615.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments…This comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… HUFFPOST SUPER USERNavyRetiredInTexasMNCM (Ret)177 Fans 3 hours ago (12:09 PM)This is a perfect example why history needs to be taught in schools. During the Viet Nam war, everytime the U.S. stopped bombing the North they stalled all negotiations. We would resume the bombing and that would FORCE them back to the table. By giving Iran breathing room we (and the rest of the free world) are simply giving them another reason to stall. I don't know why someone in the Obama administration won't take a few minutes to (re)learn a simple lesson about the way these countries work.NavyRetiredInTexas: This is a perfect example why history needs to behttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/NavyRetiredInTexas/post_3496_b_1589756_160751859.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… HUFFPOST SUPER USERCory Gudwinexamine thyself before blaming the system207 Fans 3 hours ago (11:43 AM)No paper agreement will stop the Revolutionary Guards from building nuclear weapons if that is their desire. Only military action will achieve that result.The final decision on action will be Israels alone if it discovers hard evidence of actual weapons work at any of the Iranian sites. The Revolutionary Guard are an existential threat to Israel and are already at war with Israel via the funding and arming of Hezbollah and Hamas.
European softness [the wish of this piece] on Iran will just make sanctions less effective and push Israel toward military action as the only solution to stop weapons work in Iran.
Pressuring Israel, the wish of those who hate it, is not possible.
Israels fifty-year-old nuclear arsenal is not the cause of an upcoming war.
The Revolutionary Guards desire for a nuclear weapon to protect their unelected, unpopular, authoritarian regime [that has made its members very rich]from overthrow IS the cause.Cory_Gudwin: No paper agreement will stop the Revolutionary Guards from buildinghttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Cory_Gudwin/post_3496_b_1589756_160745520.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it HUFFPOST SUPER USERFreenation433 Fans 2 hours ago (12:49 PM)"The Revolutionary Guard are an existential threat to Israel and are already at war with Israel via the funding and arming of Hezbollah and Hamas."
you obviously are purposely acting naive about the earlier news about Mossad acting as CIA and committing terrorism in Iran...oh the irony...when israel does terrorism it's always victimhood and when other do it: oh my godFreenation: "The Revolutionary Guard are an existential threat to Israel andhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Freenation/post_3496_b_1589756_160761520.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share it
HUFFPOST BLOGGERSoraya Sepahpour-Ulrich42 Fans 36 minutes ago ( 2:33 PM)Nice to see intelligent readers on this site.Soraya_Sepahpour-Ulrich: Nice to see intelligent readers on this site.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/Soraya_Sepahpour-Ulrich/post_3496_b_1589756_160787156.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. Loading comments… parsiOnce you labe me you negate me--Søren Kierkegaard366 Fans 31 minutes ago ( 2:38 PM)Freenation: Are you still Shilling for the Islamic republic from Pakistan....See the authors last name is Parsi and he is Iranian...
Don't bother responding because I will not read it.parsi: Freenation: Are you still Shilling for the Islamic republic fromhttp://www.huffingtonpost.com/social/parsi/post_3496_b_1589756_160788490.htmlHistory |Permalink |Share itThis comment has been down-ranked into oblivion. View comment You have not right to carry out this operation or Error this operation. There are More Comments on this Thread. Click Here To See them All
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